Guy J. Abel (first author), distinguished professor of Asian Demographic Research Institute (ADRI) in Shanghai University, Samir KC (corresponding author), distinguished professor of ADRI and the academician Wolfgang Lutz (common corresponding author), distinguished part-time professor of ADRI jointly published the paper Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth with Shanghai University as the first unit in PNAS (November 29, 2016 Vol. 113, no 48).
As the journal of United States National Academy of Sciences, PNAS is one of the most famous scientific journals recognized by the world (such as Nature, Science and Cell). Its impact factor was 9.423 in 2015 and 10.285 in the last five years. Since founded in 1914, PNAS has published a large number of high-level scientific papers, academic reviews, review and prospect of discipline and reports on academic trends of United States National Academy of Sciences.
This paper focused on the relationship between meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the world’s future population growth. SDGs, approved by leaders of various countries in the world at the UN Sustainable Development Summit in September 2015, inherited and carried forward the Millennium Development Goals and took eliminating poverty, protecting the earth and ensuring prosperity as the new core of sustainable development agenda. By using the multidimensional dynamic population prediction model and setting the prediction scheme with the goal of SDG, Professor Guy Abel and Samir KC, et al. simulated the trend of population change under various conditions in the future and obtained that under 95% confidence level, the world population would be 8.2 to 8.7 billion at the end of this century. Through the quantitative sensitivity research, this paper showed that the promotion of meeting SDGs, in particular the adoption of policies on improving women’s educational level and promoting reproductive health, can significantly lower world’s future population growth, which can affect human well-being and natural environmentto a large extent and then provide strong support for vigorously promoting SDGs.