Guillaume Marois is a distinguished professor at the Asian Demographic Research Institute (ADRI) under the Human capital and development pillar. He has more than 10 years of experience in population projection and is one of the world leaders in microsimulation methods. He already developed innovative microsimulation models for Europe and Canada and published many scientific papers in reputed international journals. He has been invited on several occasions to present his research to policy makers in Canada, Europe and Africa. He completed his Ph.D. in demography at the National Institute for Scientific Research (Canada) in 2014. From 2014 to 2016, he did postdoctoral research at the School of Planning and Landscape Architecture of the University of Montreal.
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Dimitrova, Asya, Guillaume Marois, Gregor Kiesewetter, Samir KC, Peter Rafaj, and Cathryn Tonne (In Press). “Health impacts of fine particles under climate change mitigation, air quality control, and demographic change in India”, Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe5d5
Goujon, Anne, Guillaume Marois, and Patrick Sabourin (In Press). “Deriving Niger’s Demographic and Education Future to 2062 with Stakeholders: Which Results?”, Population Research and Policy Review. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-020-09582-y
Marois, Guillaume, Alain Bélanger, and Wolfgang Lutz (2020). “Population aging, migration, and productivity in Europe”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(14) 7690-7695.https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1918988117
Tellier, Luc-Normand and Guillaume Marois (2020). ”The “Invasion Peril” in Light of the Topodynamic Theory, and Some Recent Statistics”, In Kourtit, K. et al. (eds.) The Economic Geography of Cross-Border Migration, Springer Nature Switzerland, pp. 15-32. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-48291-6_2
Marois, Guillaume and Michaela Potancokova (2020). Scenarios of labour force participation and employment integration of immigrants in the EU: demographic perspective, Publications Office of the European Union, Ispra, JRC118865, 30 p. http://dx.doi.org/10.2760/021884
Potančoková, Michaela, Guillaume Marois (2020). “Projecting the future births in the EU28 with fertility differentials reflecting women's educational and migrant characteristics”, Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 18, 1-26. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2020.res02
Marois, Guillaume, Patrick Sabourin, and Alain Bélanger (2020). “Implementing dynamics of immigration integration in labour force participation projection in EU28”, Population Research and Policy Review, 39(2), 339–363. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-019-09537-y
Marois, Guillaume, Patrick Sabourin, and Alain Bélanger (2019). "Forecasting Human Capital of EU Member Countries Accounting for Sociocultural Determinants”, Journal of Demographic Economics, 85(3), 231-269. https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2019.4
📖Demographic methods and techniques II
The course aims to provide knowledge and skills on advanced demographic methods for population estimates, analyses and forecasts. The course content focus on methods for estimating or modeling demographic components from alternative/indirect sources, such as the own-children method for fertility rates, the multiple decrement life tables, the gravity models to estimate migration flow, the Rogers-Castro migration schedule, etc. At the end of each lesson, the professor shows how to implement demographic methods learned into a microsimulation framework, which provide basic skills to perform multidimensional population projection and simulation, while introducing some methods to forecast demographic components (extrapolation/interpolation, cohort development approach, etc.) and for validation/quality assessment. Most exercises are conducted with Statistical Analysis System (SAS OnDemand for Academics – Free edition) and Excel.
Students need to bring their own laptop in class with Excel (or equivalent). SAS OnDemand for Academics can be used online for free after subscription. The course is suitable for graduate students with background in basic demographic and statistical methods
Week 1: Introduction
Week 2: Introduction to Statistical Analysis System (SAS)
Week 3: Advanced methods in mortality
Week 4: Advanced methods in fertility
Week 5: Advanced methods in migration
Week 6: Increment-decrement life tables
Week 7: Advanced population forecasting approach
Week 8: Catching up / Extra materials / Questions
Week 9: Presentations
Week 10: Exam
📖Global demographic challenges
The first three classes will provide to the student the basic demographic knowledge to understand population challenges, including how interpreting quantitative figures and tables, and what population forecasting can do. Some examples of calculation of demographic indicators, will be provided by the teacher. The next four classes will cover different regions of the world with their specific demographic challenges and their main consequences. Using examples from different population forecasts, we will see how current and past demographic behaviors might influence the future. Although the student will not perform calculation by himself, examples in Excel will be provided by the teacher to help in the understanding of the demographic dynamic. The last three classes will be seminars in which students will present a short communication about population challenges for a country or a region of their choice. They will have the opportunity to get comments from the teacher and their colleagues for their 2000 words essay on the same topic.
Most classes will include both magistral teaching and practical participative activities which will count as part of the final grade. Courses will be taught in English.
The course includes some exercises with Excel in class. Students thus need to have Excel or an equivalent software (such as Apache OpenOffice Calc) installed on their laptop.