Wolfgang Lutz, a distinguished professor at the Asian Demographic Research Institute (ADRI) of the School of Sociology at Shanghai University, published his latest research findings titled "Forecasting Africa's Fertility Decline by Female Education Groups" in the prestigious international scientific journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) on November 4, 2024. Academician Lutz is the corresponding author of the article, and Shanghai University is the corresponding author's institution. This is the fifth article published by the Asian Population Research Center since its establishment in 2015 in PNAS.
Academician Wolfgang Lutz, in collaboration with the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), the Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Global Human Capital, and the University of Vienna, has proposed a new method for predicting fertility changes based on education categories. Using data from 138 demographic and health surveys conducted in 39 sub-Saharan African countries from 1986 to 2022, they found a strong correlation between high levels of female education and low fertility levels. Moreover, the innovation of the study is that it is not only the individual education level of women that matters, but also the average education level of their environment. For women in all education categories, the negative correlation between average education level and ideal family size and actual fertility level is applicable across a wide range of geographical and temporal contexts. Based on this, the authors have constructed a model for predicting fertility rate changes by education category, which is based on the individual education level of women and the average education level of their region, rather than starting from subjective assumptions. This provides a scientific basis for formulating population planning and socio-economic development strategies.
Since its establishment, the ADRI at Shanghai University has been committed to international, interdisciplinary teaching and scientific research, publishing a series of high-level research findings in the fields of population, society, environment, economy, and health. Among these pulications, ADRI staff published 23 SCI/SSCI/CSSCI/core periodical papers as the first authors/corresponding authors in 2023.
PNAS Full Link:
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2320247121